Market Consolidation Continues

Bitcoin remains resilient, holding steady above the $104,000 mark as market participants anticipate a historically strong performance in the second half of the year. As of Friday’s early trading hours in Asia, Bitcoin hovered around $104,700, reflecting a 1.2% decline over the past 24 hours. Ether followed a similar path, trading just below $2,860, down 1.8% in the same period.

Despite this mild pullback, sentiment among traders remains cautiously optimistic. “BTC continues to consolidate in an upward trend, and a break above recent highs could pave the way for a rally towards $145,000,” stated a market operator.

Macro Conditions and Volatility Influence Price Action

The subdued price movements coincide with broader macroeconomic uncertainty. Following the Federal Reserve’s decision on Wednesday to hold interest rates steady, the market remains alert to the central bank’s ongoing caution regarding inflation. This hesitancy has dampened overall market activity and contributed to declining volatility in the crypto space.

Singapore-based QCP Capital noted that crypto markets, typically sluggish in the June-July period, are now entering a seasonal lull. Implied short-term volatility in Bitcoin has dropped below 40%, effectively erasing the recent geopolitical risk premium.

Options Market Signals Short-Term Caution

Open interest in perpetual futures contracts for both Bitcoin and Ethereum remains stable. However, the options market is signalling caution, with put options trading at a premium over calls—a traditional indicator that traders are hedging against potential near-term pullbacks.

Joel Kruger, strategist at LMAX Group, commented via email: “There have been no material changes in the technical outlook, which still supports another upward push. BTC is maintaining its upward consolidation, and a breakout above recent highs could trigger a move towards the $145,000 level.”

He added that while Ether is still lagging behind its 2021 peak, it is beginning to gather momentum. “Breaking above $2,900 could set the stage for a test of the $3,400 zone,” Kruger said.

US Regulatory Advances Provide Support

One positive development for the crypto industry this week was the US Senate’s approval of a regulatory framework for stablecoins. This marks a significant step toward creating a more globally coordinated regulatory environment, which in turn has strengthened institutional confidence in the sector.

Weekend Strategy: Cautious Optimism Amid Contract Expiries

The week closes on a neutral note for the leading cryptocurrencies, yet early signs on Friday indicate a mild upward trend for both Bitcoin and Ethereum. This comes as futures and options contracts are set to expire in both Europe and the United States.

So far, the crypto markets are responding positively, with prices ticking upward ahead of these expiries.

Top 10 Cryptocurrencies: Weekly and Daily Snapshot

The broader market has remained largely stable, though select digital assets are beginning to show signs of bullish momentum. Traders are now watching for potential breakouts in key assets as the second half of the year gets underway, historically a more favourable period for the crypto sector.